How would you estimate the market size for a new tech product in an emerging market?

Estimating the market size for a new tech product in an emerging market requires a systematic approach. Here are the steps I would take: 1. Define the target market: Identify the specific segment within the emerging market that the new tech product is intended for. Consider factors such as demographics, geography, and behavior. 2. Conduct market research: Gather relevant data and information about the target market. This could include primary research through surveys, interviews, or focus groups, as well as secondary research from industry reports, market studies, and competitor analysis. 3. Determine the total addressable market (TAM): Calculate the TAM by estimating the maximum revenue potential of the product in the target market. This involves identifying the number of potential customers and multiplying it by the average revenue per customer. 4. Assess the serviceable available market (SAM): Determine the SAM, which represents the portion of the TAM that the company can realistically capture. Consider factors such as distribution channels, competition, and market penetration. 5. Analyze market trends and growth rate: Evaluate the overall market trends and growth rate in the emerging market. This helps to understand the potential demand for the new tech product and its future prospects. 6. Consider market dynamics: Take into account factors such as regulatory environment, economic conditions, and cultural influences that may impact the market size estimation. 7. Use extrapolation or analogy: If there is limited data available for the emerging market, you can estimate the market size by extrapolating from similar markets or using analogy-based reasoning. 8. Validate assumptions: Validate the assumptions made during the estimation process through further research, expert opinions, or by conducting pilot studies. It's important to note that market size estimation is not an exact science and involves a degree of uncertainty. However, by following these steps and leveraging available data, a reasonable estimate can be derived.